2012 NBA Finals Preview

Written by: Zach Hammer, The Reserve Clause

Before I even get started down the path of no return, know this—we all got what we wanted. Well, I at least got what I wanted. No offense to the Spurs and their ageless, ball movement offense and incredible coaching staff, this is what the league office has been hoping for all season. Seriously, David Stern has now got a bigger grin/smirk on his face than when the Lakers v Celtics rekindled their bi-coastal rivalry in the 2008 Finals. This rivalry has everything that the league needs: intense fans (well, at least in OKC), star-studded courtside patrons (well, at least in Miami), great coaching (well, at least in OKC), and superstars (well shoot, I guess they’re in both OKC and Miami). 

Here’s the way this is going to work, I’ve spent serious time contemplating five key areas that are essential to winning this thing. I’ve looked at all of the stats, all of the material that I could get my hands on, watched every single game throughout the entire NBA Playoffs and have come to a conclusion that some will like and some will hate; that’s the nature of the beast, ladies and gents. So here we go, put on your best stadium handout fan shirt, and let’s get this thing going.

Backcourt

For those of you that didn’t know, OKC doesn’t start James Harden. He was the Sixth Man of the Year, which in most scenarios means that you are the best guy that can’t start in the League—dumb. Regardless, I can’t count “the Beard” in this category. Westbrook and Sefolosha start and a great starting pair they are. Westbrook’s athleticism is off-the-charts crazy good. A score-first point guard that has averaged a shade under 22ppg in the Playoffs, he is fearless and carries the first unit. He will need to improve on his playoff average of 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio if he wants to truly dominate. No fear, he gets his. Sefolosha is a big off-guard and will be responsible for guarding both Wade and James. Tough task for anyone. Sefolosha has the ability to do it, and can be counted on to have at least one game where he “goes off” for 15.

D-Wade and Chalmers are an outstanding duo. I may be in the minority here, but Chalmers has the potential to be a top-5 point guard in the league in no time. How couldn’t he be when he has three superstars (Wade, James, Bosh) to work through? Trust me, Chalmers is the real deal. His 3:1 turnover-to-assist ratio trumps Westbrook, but they’re two totally different players. When the ball is in Chalmers’ hands, and he’s got a look, it’s usually from downtown. At 36%, his 3P% could use a little work, but when he’s got an open jumper, it’s going down—count on that. On to Wade…’nuff said. He’s got a ring and knows what it takes to win one—get another superstar and jump on their back to a banner (see: O’Neill, Shaq). He’ll get his shots, but needs to dismantle Sefolosha and get 25 per game in order for this team to be successful. As Wade goes, so does LBJ. That isn’t to say that James needs Wade to be productive, because he doesn’t, but when he’s on the floor, it opens and he can dribble, drive, dish, or go right to the bucket. 

EDGE: Miami. 

Frontcourt

In OKC they refer to the quadrant of Westbrook, Durant, Harden, and Ibaka as the “Big 4”. I have no problem with that. This team is built for longevity and is the blueprint for front office supremacy. What people don’t realize is that Ibaka is only 22 years old and has been playing basketball for a few, short years. That astounds me because he is ready to trump Dwight Howard as the best defending big man in the game. All NBA Defensive Team, a ball magnet around the rim, he keeps shots from getting off in the paint. There’s no reason to think that it stops here. If he can bring even one iota of an offensive game into this series, Miami is in trouble down low. Perkins will play the role of the bruiser. He needs to stay out of foul trouble and finish around the rim, which has been his Achilles heel this entire run. If he can pull down low double-doubles, Miami will not know where to turn.

Bosh is a perennial All-Star. His extended jumper range killed Boston in Game 7 and could be a major factor in getting Ibaka away from the rim. He’s no defensive liability, but not nearly as strong as the OKC frontcourt men, yet he’s a great help-side defender and can play from the elbow extended. He’s a mid- to high double-double machine and needs to fill it up in this series. Udonis Haslem will be called on to be the anti-Perk in this series. He needs to hit the 10-footer with consistency, bring a defensive mindset to this series, otherwise, they’re going to have issues.

EDGE: OKC

Superstars

No doubt about it, this is the most difficult category to consider. On one side you have the “Big 3” and on the other you have the “Big 4”. However, I’m taking another look at this, and I need to be objective. The true superstars in this series are Durant and James—don’t argue with me on this, because you all know that it’s the case. Stats are really a push. On one side you have the two-time reigning scoring champ, on the other you’ve got a perennial MVP. It’s too difficult a task to look at this as a one-on-one, apples to oranges comparison. It can’t be done. So here’s how I’m doing this: FANTASY DRAFT! If I were to start a team from scratch and held the first pick, these two would, without question, be the first two picks. But…I can only pick one. If I’m starting a franchise from square one and needed to draft the guy that I’m building my team around it’s LeBron James. Sorry haters, he’s the best player in the NBA hands down. I want a guy that can play any position on the floor, is a willing scorer, willing defender, and willing leader. I don’t care if he hasn’t hit a game winner, you don’t need to when you beat teams by double digits in the fourth quarter. People seem to forget that.

EDGE: MIA

Bench

This won’t take long, I promise. Miami has nearly $50M tied up in three guys. That doesn’t yield much in terms of bench help. Pat Riley has done an admirable job of putting proven guys around the “Big 3” that fall well within the cap limitations, but that simply isn’t enough. OKC has everything that a bench needs. Star player (Harden), scrappy, team-first defender (Collison), career winners (Fisher), and a dead red spot-up shooter (Cook) that when given minutes, can contribute. This one is over. No doubter here.

EDGE: OKC

Coaching

Scott Brooks was a career backup point guard in the league. He made it the hard way, coming up through the CBA and other strange affiliates before landing in great situations in Houston. He played with championship teams and knows what a team needs to do to win. He’s a former Coach of the Year after posting perhaps the greatest franchise turn-around in League history, taking them from a 23-win season to a 50-win season. That’s admirable, regardless of drafting and other circumstances. His players love him, the city adores him, and he fits the bill. 

Spoelstra is an enigma. He is seemingly the “Queen of England”, which amounts to a “prisoners run the asylum” type of situation. He has very little to do with the success of the Heat, other than the fact that he was able to hold the team together through the vast expectations preceding them, which is admirable but not enough. He knows that he needs to win right now and he will do what he needs to do to accomplish that. Otherwise, he’ll be looking for a job on Vinny Del Negro’s staff. He’ll be the guy cleaning the clipboard on the sideline.

EDGE: OKC

Final Say

I personally cannot wait to see how this series unravels. There are so many intriguing sub-plots: Can the Heat’s personification of the anti-Moneyball team be realized?, Can the upstart Thunder trump the powerful “Big 3” and begin their expected dynasty a year earlier than anticipated? Regardless of how this shakes out, expect fireworks and insane games. You don’t want to miss this, it’s going to be BIG!

PREDICTION: OKC IN 6.