(A “best guess” at how it will all play out in the 2011/12 EPL season)
As the dog days of summer slowly wind down, and with it, “silly season” rumors and an insane amount of money being spent on player transfers, the 2011-12 English Premier League season is set to kick off next Saturday. Enough of these superfluous preseason “friendlies”, meaningless tournaments and club world tours; it’s time for the real stuff, and I, for one, can’t wait. And so with the promise of every new season comes the completely pointless act of trying to predict how it might all turn out (See...I’m only saying this because I’m really not very good at predictions). It is surely an act in futility, and will undoubtedly serve as a source of ridicule and shame for yours truly (setting very low expectations here in an effort to protect myself). I mean the summer transfer window isn’t even closed yet, and player movement over the next few weeks could still have a massive impact for many clubs’ fortunes this coming season (building in some more excuses). What can I say, I’m a glutton for punishment, and while predictions are useless and unnecessary (reinforcing again how much it really doesn’t matter how wrong I am), it’s still kind of fun. With all that (qualifying) out of the way, here’s how I say it’s going to down this year…
1. Manchester United
Yawn… I know. Manchester United have won the EPL title a record twelve times (18 English first division titles, if you’re counting at home), while the next closer competitors are Arsenal and Chelsea, both having one the Premier League three times each. Many said last year’s title winning side was one of the weakest in the history of the League, but yet they were still good enough to win it, and make the Champions League final too. The retirements of Paul Scholes and perhaps more importantly, Edwin van der Sar, will hurt, and the youthful additions to the squad look to be moves that will pay off in the future rather than this season, but this is Manchester United…with Sir Alex Ferguson on the sidelines and Rooney, Giggs, and Vidic on the pitch, which means they’ll find a way to win the title yet again.
2. Manchester City
Blackburn Rovers won the Premier League title in the ‘94/’95 season, and I’m not sure if people still quite believed it happened, but this year could be the best chance in a long, long time for a new champion to be crowned. Enter the ‘noisy neighbors’, as the Citizens have been called by Sir Alex Ferguson, and with them comes millions of pounds to burn and arguably the largest and deepest squad in the league this year. Man City took a huge step forward last season, finishing third in the league to qualify for Champions League. They’ve only strengthened further this summer with the additions of center forward, Sergio Aguero, and ex-Gunner, Gael Clichy. If their captain and talisman, Carlos Tevez’s goes, he’ll be hard to replace, but some might argue that less chiefs and more Indians are exactly what this squad needs to be great. They’ll come close this year, and their ascension in the league and Europe seems inevitable, but their massive investment and blind ambitions won’t be quite enough this season. Still, 2nd ain’t bad, or is it….Roberto Mancini?
3. Chelsea
The Blues may be one of the more interesting stories this season, as the questions seem to outnumber the answers for the first time in a long time at Stamford Bridge. Andre Villas-Boas or ‘AVB’ as I now hear him referred to as, steps in as the youngest manager to ever win a European title (at age 33 with Porto), and anointed the next “Special One” by most, but also inherits quite the challenge with an aging squad, massive expectations (particularly in Europe), and trigger-happy Russian billionaire owner, who is all too happy to hand anybody their walking papers if they don’t deliver him his just rewards. Chelsea already lose their do-it-all, versatile midfielder, Michael Essien, for a number of months due to injury, and with Frank Lampard coming off an injury plagued 2011, and Fernando Torres still trying to regain his form from two years ago, Villas-Boas will likely have too much on his mind and plate to contend for this year’s EPL title. What will have his attention and may ultimately decide how “special” he’ll get a chance to be at Chelsea is how far his side advances in the Champions League.
4. Arsenal
Ok, admittedly a little biased here, as an Arsenal supporter, but it is nearly impossible to predict my club’s fortunes this year without knowing what business, if any business, will be done before the transfer window closes. With all the drama and all the negativity facing the club this summer, as it stands today, want-away skipper, Cesc Fabregas, and contract rebel, Samir Nasri, are still part of the squad. I suspect one, but not both will go before the end of the month, and manager, Arsene Wenger, has pretty much said as much. If that happens, replacements within will likely come from within, and at this point I’m not sure what else is the alternative. In terms of additions, Arsenal haven’t added much (same story, different year). Who they have added is versatile forward, Gervinho, from French champs Lille, which looks like a good bit of business based on his preseason performance (I know, I know…it’s only preseason). Carl Jenkinson, a fullback from Charlton Athletic, looks a promising one for the future as well. Still Gooners clamor for further strengthening of squad, particularly in the center of defense, and while many names have been rumored over the summer months to be headed to North London, none have come as of yet. A soft backbone (literally and figuratively) and defensive frailties exist, as well as the ever-growing pressure on the club to deliver their first trophy in seven years. Everyone expected Arsenal to spend more this summer (including the guy writing this article), and if they don’t add to the squad prior to the window closing, they’ll absolutely suffer for it. Perhaps I’m predicting more with my heart than my head here, but I’m a fan, and that’s what we do, so I’m going to say Wenger does the business, adds at least one before the window closes, and Arsenal have just enough to come fourth this year. It will be little consolation to the Gooner faithful, but the alternatives could be worse all considered…and I’ve considered them…believe me.
5. Liverpool
If Chelsea isn’t the most interesting story in the EPL this year, then Liverpool would be in my opinion. Arguably the most successful club in England with 18 first division titles, and 5 European Cup/Champions League titles (8 total European titles), Scousers have been made to eat some humble pie the last two seasons. On top of that, Liverpool has yet to win the English Premier League, despite all their historical success. However with a new owner (trying to forget he’s American like the last guys), and the return of the king (Kenny Daglish), many Reds’ supporters believe it is only a matter of time until Liverpool FC take their rightful place as part of England and Europe’s elite once again. Liverpool have “gone British” to bolster their chances and squad, adding the likes (and spending lots of pounds to do it) of striker Andy Carroll last winter, and Charlie Adam, Jordan Henderson and Stewart Downing this summer. Oh yeah, they also added a pretty good Uruguayan by the named of Luis Suarez too. A few will point to an inflated midfield and light backline as the major squad questions entering the season, but how much talisman Steven Gerrard has left to contribute may determine just how successful or unsuccessful this season ends up. I’m going right down the middle and predicted Europe for Liverpool, but Europa League instead of Champions League.
6. Tottenham Hotspur
Ah, Spurs…hmmm….I should be objective here…and my mom always said, “If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all”…so with that, I predict Spurs to finish 6th.
7. Sunderland
Perhaps the best way to characterize the Black Cats steady progression up the table the last few seasons is “slow and steady wins the race…and lots of turnover.” Steve Bruce has slowly but surely brought Sunderland up from near bottom of the table to tenth last season, and despite departures of Darren Bent last winter and Jordan Henderson this summer, I’m predicting that climb continues in ‘11/’12. Bruce is renowned for his ability to unearth gems like Antonio Valencia and Wilson Palacios in his time at Wigan, and looks to have found a keeper in Asamoah Gyan last winter. He’s certainly not afraid to get into the market and spend either, as he’s brought in a number of new faces including versatile and experienced United vets, John O’Shea and Wes Brown, as well as free kick specialist, Sebastian Larsson, creative center mid, Craig Gardner, and perhaps a star for the future (called “the next Alan Shearer”) Connor Wickham. The Stadium of Light should be a place for bright hopes and ambition this season and Sunderland continues their climb.
8. Everton
The Toffees have done well to remain in the top eight over the past five years in the most competitive and richest spending league in the world. Everton have had yet another summer characterized by little spending to add to the squad, and more attention paid to hanging on to players. The biggest victories offseason so far have been the fact that Leighton Baines and Phil Jagielka are still part of the club. One wonders when and if David Moyes won’t be tempted away by a side with greater ambitions and resources (cough, cough…Manchester United perhaps), but that’s a story for another day (that’s called a “tease”). Everton continues to develop quality youngsters with a strong youth system, and one that may be next to battle to hang onto is the immensely talented Jack Rodwell. I’ve seen a few question if selling Rodwell for an exorbitant sum might be inevitable to allow the club to reinforce in a number of areas. As it stands, Moyes and seemingly unified squad led by the likes of Tim Cahill, Mikel Arteta, Phil Jagielka, Leighton Baines and Tim Howard look still strong enough to continue their run in the top half. Striker is a position that seems to be of the largest concern at the moment, and I too worry as to where Everton might find goals this season. As a supporter of club in an eerily similar position (albeit perhaps for different reasons), I sympathize with Blues’ supporters and am rooting they exceed my own expectations.
9. Fulham
Exit Mark Hughes, enter Martin Jol…and in my opinion, Fulham FC are better for it. You always got the feeling that Hughes never thought Fulham were a good enough club for him, and he always had his eye on another job (cough, cough…Aston Villa). As such, Fulham experienced a bit of a hangover in 2011 from what was a magical European season in 2010, reaching the Europa League final. Add to the mix, some major injuries to key players, and the Cottagers did well to finish 8th. You’d probably ask yourself how I could contend that Jol is a better man the job than Hughes, when I’m predicting them for 9th this campaign. Whether other than the fact that I think the League overall is going to be stronger this year, my answer would be that Jol is better fit for the future of Fulham football, and will certainly offer fans a better product to watch on a weekly basis. Fulham were conservative and boring last season, and lacked the excitement and ambition that inspired supporters under Hodgson. In regards to the upcoming season, Fulham hasn’t added much to their side, which could be a source of future concern, but bringing in talented youngsters like Kasami will hopefully be a glimpse into the future of what Cottagers fans can come to expect. Additionally, there shouldn’t be much worry for a relegation scrap this year either, with more than enough quality and experience still part of the squad.
10. Aston Villa
The Villans are probably the hardest club to predict league position for this upcoming season. Aston Villa are a “big club”, to be sure, and a club under Martin O’Neil that seemed destined for Europe for years to come, possibly even challenging “the Big Four”. Since O’Neil’s departure, and a brief unspectacular term by Gerard Houlier, Aston Villa now face a bit of a crossroads. They’ve hired Alex McLeish away bit rivals and demoted Birmingham City (a rather unpopular choice, as you can imagine), and sold two of their best players in Ashley Young and Stewart Downing, which have many asking what exactly is owner, Randy Lerner’s, ambitions for the club. Villa has made a couple of really shrewd signings in Shay Given, to replace vet keeper, Brad Friedel, and the enigmatic, but underrated, attacker Charles N’Zogbia. There is still proven Premier League quality in the side, such as striker Darren Bent, but Villla will likely go as far as their substantial, unfilled potential take them. Namely, Gaby Agbonlahor, Stephen Ireland, Fabian Delph, and promising youngster, Chris Albrighton and Ciaran Clark.
Ok, time to speed this up …a bit of speed previewing.
11. Stoke City
They’d finish bottom of the table for entertaining football, but give Tony Pulis credit…his long-balling, Dulap long-throwin’, hard tackling style have kept Stoke in the top division the past few years, and the Britannia is one of the toughest places for any EPL side to get a result.
12. Bolton Wanderers
Owen Coyle has his work cut out for him this year, and as many are likely to predict Bolton for the drop with the loss of a couple of their strongest offensive players, and Gary Cahill may possibly go too, but if the Greater Manchester club can get Stuart Holden back healthy and find another goal scorer to go along with workhorse Kevin Davies, Bolton should survive for another season in the top flight.
13. Newcastle United
Loads of Twitter drama and more fan unrest (thank you Joey Barton for some entertainment this offseason!), but I actually like the French look the side have taken. Yohan Cabaye, from Lille, could end up being one of the better signings of the summer, and while Geordies will upset by loss of few and still fewer coming in with all that Andy Carroll money, the squad was badly in need of a makeover big time. Not the biggest Alan Pardew or Mike Ashley, but let’s hope for the United faithful that a trip back Championship isn’t in the offing.
14. West Bromich Albion
Roy Hodgson took over for Roberto DiMatteo mid-season last year, and helped keep the Baggies in the top flight for a sophomore season. For all that Hodgson may not have been at Liverpool, he was much of what he’d been for Fulham during their historic European run two years previous. His steady hand and calming affect was exactly what West Brom needed as they seemed sure for the drop. Odemwingie, Brunt and new loanee, Ben Foster will be vital for West Midland sides’ survival this year.
15. Wigan Athletic
A number of “predictors” will have the Latics for drop this season, and they came close just a season ago. Losses, most notably Charles N’Zogbia, will be tough to replace. Owner Dave Whelan showed a lot of loyalty to manager Roberto Martinez by not sacking him last season, and Martinez showed equal loyalty to Whelan by not jumping ship to Villa this summer. Refreshing by today’s footballing standards, and for that reason, here is a bit of hope and wishful thinking that Wigan can stay up this year.
16. Queens Park Rangers
QPR are one of the more interesting clubs to watch this season in my opinion. A club with owners of notably deep pockets and yet they’ve inexplicably invested very little into what looks very much like a Championship side. Additionally, they’ve given very little confidence or support to their provocative manager, Neil Warnock, who has a history of bringing sides up, only to see them go right back down. QPR ran away with the Championship, and did so in style, led by their top goal scorer and inspiration, Adel Taarabt. But is he good enough to help QPR stave off the drop? He’d better be with additions like eternally crocked Kieron Dyer.
17. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Mick McCarthy’s boys were nearly relegated the last two seasons since being promoted in ’09-‘10. Despite their hard-nosed, “never say die” attitude, they look destined for another relegation scrap this year come the end of spring. There is reason for hope though at the Molineux, including the likes of promising young winger, Matt Jarvis, the transfer in of former Birm City steady man, Roger Johnson, a full year of Jamie O’Hara, and the late season form of striker, Steven Fletcher, which all should aide Wolves in avoiding the drop yet again the season.
18. Blackburn Rovers
The only club not named Manchester United, Chelsea or Arsenal to win an English Premier League title. Oh, how that type of success and expectation seems so long ago for the Lancashire outfit. Blackburn sweated out relegation last season, and despite some quality players and experience still at the club, including the likes of Chris Samba, David Dunn, and Morten Gamst Pedersen, you wonder if residence in the first division will depend more on the development and contributions of youngsters Steven N’Zonzi and David Hoillet. Add to the mix an ownership group that meddles, but offers little support to manager Steve Kean, and I predict a tough season ahead for Rovers faithful.
19. Norwich City
The Canaries are an attractive, footballing side with a master plan, and a really good manager in Paul Lambert, but their squad is likely too thin, and their tactics too ambitious to prevent them from returning to the Championship. The bigger question may be how long Norwich can hang on to a really good manager in Lambert.
20. Swansea City
The Welsh side were one of the more attacking and visually appealing sides in the Championship last year. One wonders if they’ll be nearly as ambitious in the Premier League. We can only hope, but while they may be this year’s Blackpool, they’ll likely end up with the same fate as well.
My season award predictions go like this… Wayne Rooney as my Player of the Year (going out on a limb there, I know), Sir Alex Ferguson as Manager of the Year (more risky business), Darren Bent as my Top Goal Scorer (got to pick a non ManU guy for something), and Gervinho as my Newcomer of the Year (come on, I’m a Gooner, and we’re desperate for this guy to come good!).
With that, the predictions come to end, and let the season begin…enjoy your football and COME ON YOU ARSENAL!!!
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